Twin Peaks – Update to 15 July 2009

I published charts in Twin Peaks – “The Past, The Future?” up to 22 May 2009. Readers have asked for an update. My calculations are based on indexing the two market peaks in terms of each other. It is almost eight weeks later. Are the twins still twins? Here is the update to 15 July 2009. You be the Judge.



Click on chart to enlarge.



Click on chart to enlarge.



Click on chart to enlarge.


Short notes:

• The correlated Nikkei peak is shown as the middle of August 2009.
• The Nikkei correlation index peak is calculated at 9180 correlated to 10 August 2009.
• The DJIA peak is now 8799.26 on 12 June 2009.
• The Nikkei correlated point for 15 July 2009 is 9105 against the DJIA at 8616.21.

I have previously used a percentage change calculation but I find that reading the points off the data table is a better method for establishing reference points.

Please note that this is a correlation exercise and not a prediction of the future. The correlation can break down at any time or it may continue to be useful to track. I will update the charts again in about two months.



Sarel Oberholster
BCom (Cum Laude), CAIB (SA)
17 July 2009


© Sarel Oberholster


Please email me at ccpt@iafrica.com with any comments. More links and essays can be found on my blog at http://sareloberholster.blogspot.com/ .